When it comes to predicting winners of state basketball tournaments, there's no such thing as a sure bet

By SCOTT SANDSBERRY
YAKIMA HERALD-REPUBLIC

Nobody's unbeatable.

As we close in on the back-to-back-to-back state basketball tournaments that will be coming to the Yakima Valley SunDome in three weeks (Class 1B), four weeks (1A) and five weeks (2A), that may be the only thing of which we can
be sure of: There's not an unbeatable team out there.

That's why they play the games instead of just mailing the trophy to Squalicum (2A) and Vashon (1A) in the boys and Seattle Christian (1A) and Colton (1B) in the girls, who returned so much firepower from their 2009 title teams they could logically be expected to repeat.

(Here's a teaser for you: I think only one of those four will get it done.)

For the sake of argument -- and, yes, there will be some -- here's one observer's prediction of what teams will make it to the Yakima Valley SunDome tournaments and how they might be "seeded" were the SunDome games to start today.

CLASS 2A GIRLS

Favorites: River Ridge, West Valley (Spokane), Elma.

Contenders: Burlington-Edison, Lynden, Prosser, East Valley (Yakima), Archbishop Murphy.

Might surprise: Ellensburg, Eatonville, Squalicum, Pullman.

Dark horses: Kingston, Black Hills, Colville, Woodland.

The skinny: The 2A field isn't nearly as predictable as the boys, with probably seven teams capable of winning this thing. The pollsters have been in love with the teams from the west side (River Ridge, Elma, Lynden, B-E) all season long, and perhaps for good reason. Elma lost fewer than seven points a game off its fourth-place 2009 club, and River Ridge didn't graduate a soul. Still, my money would be on ...

The pick: West Valley, which returns all five starters from its 2009 third-place finishers and drilled Lakeside (a legitimate 1A title contender) by 24 points. And I wouldn't put it past Robi Raab's defensive-minded East Valley girls to knock off some of those higher-ranked west-side schools.

CLASS 2A BOYS

Favorites: Squalicum, Ephrata, Burlington-Edison.

Contenders: Mark Morris, Lynden, River Ridge, Clarkston, Wapato (with an IF*).

Might surprise: Deer Park, Fife, Steilacoom, Cheney, Selah (also with an IF**).

Dark horses: R.A. Long, Hockinson, Archbishop Murphy.

The skinny: The big three are head-and-shoulders above the rest, Wapato's upset victory over Ephrata notwithstanding. Squalicum is extremely well-coached and guards Derek Dickerson and Patrick Voeut are as explosive as they come. Burlington-Edison is led by Evan Coulter, who could score 20 points on the worst shooting night of his life, and the Tigers placed second the past two years (to Ephrata in 2008, to Squalicum in 2009). This year, though, I see them finishing third -- unless Squalicum and Ephrata end up in the same bracket.

* Wapato is a legitimate contender if Matt Guevara's knee injury doesn't sideline him for the stretch run.

** Selah will need to have a healthy Drew Washut (plantar fasciitis) and Nick Longmire (mononucleosis) even to make it to the tournament.

The pick: Yes, Squalicum should win this thing. But I like Ephrata. Patrick Simon, a 6-foot-8 future DI guy who can stroke J's from 3-point land all night, is a matchup nightmare. And 6-3 Ross Buchert is one heck of a second
scoring option.

CLASS 1A GIRLS

Favorites: Granger, Seattle Christian, Freeman, Okanogan.

Contenders: Lakeside, Burbank, Chelan, Lynden Christian.

Might surprise: Vashon, Toledo, Nooksack Valley, Bellevue Christian.

Dark horses: Goldendale, Ilwaco, King's, Rainier.

The skinny: You could pretty much throw the contenders and the favorites into one pot and stir it up, because any one of those teams is capable of winning it all. Lakeside and Freeman have split; Okanogan and Chelan may end
up splitting. Seattle Christian beat Granger for the title last year, but I'm still not sure the Spartans weren't the better team. And Lynden Christian is, well, Lynden Christian, the gold standard in 1A girls basketball.

The pick: The shortest, most fearless, best-coached team in the field. I like the Granger Spartans to ascend one more step -- from third in 2008 to second in 2009 and, finally, to first in 2010.

CLASS 1A BOYS

Favorites: Vashon, Chelan, Cascade Christian.

Contenders: Granger, Onalaska, Bellevue Christian, Meridian, King's.

Might surprise: Lake Roosevelt, Castle Rock, Okanogan, Meridian (or Coupeville, depending on how the Tri-District plays out).

Dark horses: Goldendale, Stevenson, River View, Freeman.

The skinny: Vashon's aura of invincibility took a big hit last week when Cascade Christian shut down 6-foot-7 Alex Wegner. CC shot 9-for-18 on 3-pointers and rolled to a 60-45 victory over the Pirates. But this is a great, deep field, and it's quite possible Granger and Onalaska will bring unbeaten records into the tournament -- and not even be listed among the favorites.

The pick: Onalaska and Cascade Christian will play sensational defense. Granger will seem taller than the Spartans really are. Vashon has two future DI players. But Chelan is more than just Joe Harris this year. The 1A player
of the year has four teammates capable of scoring in double figures, including guys who stand 6-4, 6-4 and 6-3, and a freshman point guard who plays like he's 20.
I'm going with the Goats.

CLASS 1B GIRLS

Favorites: Colton, St. John-Endicott, ACH, Columbia (Hunters).

Contenders: Sunnyside Christian, Pateros, North Sound Christian, Neah Bay.

Might surprise: Sprague-Harrington, Clallam Bay, Highland Christian.

Dark horses: Trout Lake-Glenwood, Wishkah Valley, Taholah, Wilson Creek and whoever comes in third from the Southwest.

The skinny: This is the 2010 SunDome state tournament's closest thing to a coronation march. If anybody manages to knock off the defending state champs, I'm buying $10 worth of Lotto tickets because anything can happen. SJE got it done last week, evening its season series with the Wildcats and moving into a first-place tie atop the AP poll, but ...

The pick: ... it's still Colton. Duh.

CLASS 1B BOYS

Favorites: Rosalia, Wellpinit, Sunnyside Christian, Neah Bay.

Contenders: Lummi, Entiat, Cusick, Almira/Coulee-Hartline.

Might surprise: Moses Lake Christian, Lopez, Oakville, Tri-Cities Prep.

Dark horses: Yakama Tribal, Tahola, Morton, Mount Rainier Lutheran.

The skinny: Wellpinit, Neah Bay and Lummi will come at you in waves, putting up points in bunches. ACH's season-long campaign in the rugged Bi-County will mean the Warriors will be better than their record. Rosalia has the
best team out there, with the 1B ranks' top 1-2 punch in tireless 6-4 senior Jim Maley (probably the 1B player of the year) and 6-5 skywalker Nathan Richards. So I'm going
with ...

The pick: Sunnyside Christian. You think I'm picking against Dean Wagenaar at clutch time? Do I look stupid?

OK, wait. I'll rephrase the question ...